not really. this is going to be a long year for the home team. since it seems manny is going to sign with the dodgers, he's the last big piece to fall. and i watched an astros spring training game yesterday versus the braves and it was the greatest hour of the year thus far. so with all that being said, it's time for the 2009 baseball predictions. let's go:
National League
Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Houston Astros
5. Milwaukee Brewers
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
East
1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies*
3. Florida Marlins
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Washington Nationals
West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
American League
Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Chicago White Sox
East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Boston Red Sox*
3. New York Yankees
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
West
1. Anaheim Angels
2. Oakland Atheletics
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
*denotes wild card selection
so that's it. yes, the reds will surprise some people this year. yes, the yankees will surprise everyone and finish third. c.c. is not big time. burnett will get hurt and a-roid is in for a long year. also, the twins will continue to mystify everyone and continue winning the central, while in the national league west, manny isn't enough to get the dodgers past the diamondbacks. i think those young kids are finally going to put it together this year. and the home team, well, fourth place isn't that bad when you look at the pitching staff. the only way the astros move up this year and finish second or third is if mike hampton and russ ortiz both become comeback players of the year, kaz matsui is actually healthy and michael bourn can get on base. otherwise, look for bogusevic, sutton and johnson to get a call-up later in the year.
162 games. i'm ready.
Friday, February 27, 2009
frosted ambassador
this is from mish:
"Dear Mr. President, With All Due Respect ....
Dear Mr. President, I read your New Era $3.6 Trillion Budget Proposal. I also listened to your speech Tuesday night. You made a great campaign speech. However, the campaign is over. You won. And the reason you won is you offered hope as well as a promise of change.
With all due respect Mr. President, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke are offering the same policies as President Bush and Secretary Paulson. Those policies are to bail out banks regardless of cost to taxpayers. Mr. President, it's hard enough to overlook Geithner's tax indiscretions. Mr. President, it is harder still. if not impossible, to ignore the fact that neither Geithner nor Bernanke saw this coming. Yet amazingly they are both cock sure of the solution. Even more amazing is the fact that solution changes every day.
With all due respect Mr. President, Geithner and Bernanke are a huge part of the problem, and no part of the solution and the sooner you realize that the better off this nation will be.
With all due respect Mr. President, your budget proposal is the same big government spending as we saw under President Bush. The only difference is you promised more spending and bigger government, while President Bush promised less government and less spending and failed to deliver on either count.With all due respect Mr. President, it is impossible to spend one's way out of a problem, when the problem is reckless spending.
With all due respect Mr. President, you and Congress want to force banks to lend when banks (by not lending) are acting responsibly for the first time in a decade. Mr, President can you please tell us who banks are supposed to lend to? Do we need any more Home Depots? Pizza Huts? Strip malls? Nail salons? Auto dealerships? What Mr. President? What? And why should banks be lending when unemployment is rising and lending risks right along with it?
With all due respect Mr. President, we were hoping your administration would not carry on the war mongering policies of your predecessor. Instead we see amazingly that you Seek $75.5 Billion More for Wars in 2009. Mr. President, do we really need another $75 billion for wars? Was there nothing in the military budget that could be cut?
With all due respect Mr. President, The United States spends more on its military budget than the next 45 highest spending countries in the world combined; The United States accounts for 48 percent of the world's total military spending; The United States spends on its military 5.8 times more than China, 10.2 times more than Russia, and 98.6 times more than Iran. Isn't that enough Mr. President?
With all due respect Mr. President, the downfall of every great nation in history has been unsustainable military expansion. Mr. President, the US can no longer afford to be the world's policeman. You act as if we can. Mr. President, can you please tell us how we can afford this spending?
With all due respect Mr. President, Fannie Mae Reported A Fourth Quarter Loss Of $25.2 Billion. Can you please tell us where you draw the line on taxpayer bailouts of Fannie Mae? Freddie Mac? AIG? Mr. President is there a line anywhere, on anything? If there is, we would appreciate knowing where it is.
With all due respect Mr. President, how can you talk about reducing the budget deficit while proposing the biggest budget in history?
With all due respect Mr. President, how is it possible to talk about reducing health care costs while proposing to increase the health care budget?
With all due respect Mr. President, you have talked about "hard choices". Can you please tell us what hard choices you have made other than to throw money at every problem? Sure a few programs have changed but Bush orchestrated the biggest Medicaid/Medicare package in history and you upped it. You upped military spending. You criticized McCain for cutting programs that amount to peanuts, and all you can find to cut out of the budget is peanuts.
With all due respect Mr. President, your "Era of New Responsibility" is nothing more than a continuation of the Bush administration Era of Irresponsibility. Mr. President, we hoped for more and deserved more. Yet, behind the charade of campaign messages of hope and change, we essentially see the same fiscal irresponsibility and misguided policies as before. Oh sure Mr. President, your budget priorities have shifted a bit, sadly the irresponsible spending did not."
"Dear Mr. President, With All Due Respect ....
Dear Mr. President, I read your New Era $3.6 Trillion Budget Proposal. I also listened to your speech Tuesday night. You made a great campaign speech. However, the campaign is over. You won. And the reason you won is you offered hope as well as a promise of change.
With all due respect Mr. President, Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke are offering the same policies as President Bush and Secretary Paulson. Those policies are to bail out banks regardless of cost to taxpayers. Mr. President, it's hard enough to overlook Geithner's tax indiscretions. Mr. President, it is harder still. if not impossible, to ignore the fact that neither Geithner nor Bernanke saw this coming. Yet amazingly they are both cock sure of the solution. Even more amazing is the fact that solution changes every day.
With all due respect Mr. President, Geithner and Bernanke are a huge part of the problem, and no part of the solution and the sooner you realize that the better off this nation will be.
With all due respect Mr. President, your budget proposal is the same big government spending as we saw under President Bush. The only difference is you promised more spending and bigger government, while President Bush promised less government and less spending and failed to deliver on either count.With all due respect Mr. President, it is impossible to spend one's way out of a problem, when the problem is reckless spending.
With all due respect Mr. President, you and Congress want to force banks to lend when banks (by not lending) are acting responsibly for the first time in a decade. Mr, President can you please tell us who banks are supposed to lend to? Do we need any more Home Depots? Pizza Huts? Strip malls? Nail salons? Auto dealerships? What Mr. President? What? And why should banks be lending when unemployment is rising and lending risks right along with it?
With all due respect Mr. President, we were hoping your administration would not carry on the war mongering policies of your predecessor. Instead we see amazingly that you Seek $75.5 Billion More for Wars in 2009. Mr. President, do we really need another $75 billion for wars? Was there nothing in the military budget that could be cut?
With all due respect Mr. President, The United States spends more on its military budget than the next 45 highest spending countries in the world combined; The United States accounts for 48 percent of the world's total military spending; The United States spends on its military 5.8 times more than China, 10.2 times more than Russia, and 98.6 times more than Iran. Isn't that enough Mr. President?
With all due respect Mr. President, the downfall of every great nation in history has been unsustainable military expansion. Mr. President, the US can no longer afford to be the world's policeman. You act as if we can. Mr. President, can you please tell us how we can afford this spending?
With all due respect Mr. President, Fannie Mae Reported A Fourth Quarter Loss Of $25.2 Billion. Can you please tell us where you draw the line on taxpayer bailouts of Fannie Mae? Freddie Mac? AIG? Mr. President is there a line anywhere, on anything? If there is, we would appreciate knowing where it is.
With all due respect Mr. President, how can you talk about reducing the budget deficit while proposing the biggest budget in history?
With all due respect Mr. President, how is it possible to talk about reducing health care costs while proposing to increase the health care budget?
With all due respect Mr. President, you have talked about "hard choices". Can you please tell us what hard choices you have made other than to throw money at every problem? Sure a few programs have changed but Bush orchestrated the biggest Medicaid/Medicare package in history and you upped it. You upped military spending. You criticized McCain for cutting programs that amount to peanuts, and all you can find to cut out of the budget is peanuts.
With all due respect Mr. President, your "Era of New Responsibility" is nothing more than a continuation of the Bush administration Era of Irresponsibility. Mr. President, we hoped for more and deserved more. Yet, behind the charade of campaign messages of hope and change, we essentially see the same fiscal irresponsibility and misguided policies as before. Oh sure Mr. President, your budget priorities have shifted a bit, sadly the irresponsible spending did not."
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
it covers the hillside
i don't watch a lot of movies, but the ones i do, i select carefully. you won't find me watching eddie murphy in "daddy day care 11: the return of the fishsticks." i know that movie sucks and i'm not going to waste my time watching it. but even the ones i select carefully can be let downs, like the darjeeling limited. i was so excited to see it and it was awful. or the good shepherd. i actually saw that a long time ago and don't know why i thought of it, but i'm glad i did because it was awful too.
so it's great when you see a movie and the credits are running and you don't want to talk. you don't to say a word because that means it's over. this thing that you were experiencing is over and you have to let it go when you don't want to. we watched "into the wild" this past friday night and i could not leave that movie alone. it's the story of christopher mccandless a.k.a. "alexander supertramp." he's a young kid who's just graduated from college and he goes off on this adventure to find truth and meaning. the film is extremely inspiring and heartfelt. the kid really has no idea what he's doing, but everywhere he goes, he influences people in a positive way.
there's one quote that sticks with me from the movie: "happiness is only real when shared."
if you get a chance and you're watching the dark knight for the fourth time, put this movie on instead.
so it's great when you see a movie and the credits are running and you don't want to talk. you don't to say a word because that means it's over. this thing that you were experiencing is over and you have to let it go when you don't want to. we watched "into the wild" this past friday night and i could not leave that movie alone. it's the story of christopher mccandless a.k.a. "alexander supertramp." he's a young kid who's just graduated from college and he goes off on this adventure to find truth and meaning. the film is extremely inspiring and heartfelt. the kid really has no idea what he's doing, but everywhere he goes, he influences people in a positive way.
there's one quote that sticks with me from the movie: "happiness is only real when shared."
if you get a chance and you're watching the dark knight for the fourth time, put this movie on instead.
shelter from the storm
president obama gave a speech last night. here is the transcript. i've read through most of it and i agree with the assessment that recent ideological visions have favored short-term profits over long-term development. this is an american phenomenom. it wasn't just the goverment. it was all of us. but how do we fix our debt as people? we stop spending, we cut back. we try to earn more money from our employer, either through working overtime or getting an extra job. these same rules will have to apply to our government. they'll have to scale back spending or reallocate to satisfy spending needs. they'll have to raise more money, that means taxes. either that or print more money and debase the currency, which i don't think they'll do unless they have to. so i agree with obama about long-term planning, it's needed, it's necessary. but i don't understand how he's going to cut the decifit and give people a tax cut. i hope he can. i hope he's got something up his sleeve and is able to pull this off. i want to live in a country that has a plan again. that has a vision.
businessweek has a write-up of the speak and the main points and analysis. here it is.
charlie rose is at it again. here he is with morgan stanley's john mack.
ukraine's ratings cut by S&P.
mish on bernanke's hide and seek.
top 10 brands to invest in from yahoo finance.
michael cera is apparently on board for the arrested development movie. my dream is coming true.
here's a concert review of blitzen trapper in chicago. i love furr but it's slightly scattered. if those guys can focus on one sound, they're going to make some freakin' amazing albums. hopefully they come to texas, other than SXSW.
businessweek has a write-up of the speak and the main points and analysis. here it is.
charlie rose is at it again. here he is with morgan stanley's john mack.
ukraine's ratings cut by S&P.
mish on bernanke's hide and seek.
top 10 brands to invest in from yahoo finance.
michael cera is apparently on board for the arrested development movie. my dream is coming true.
here's a concert review of blitzen trapper in chicago. i love furr but it's slightly scattered. if those guys can focus on one sound, they're going to make some freakin' amazing albums. hopefully they come to texas, other than SXSW.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
banking on a myth
risk. that's the measure. that's the key. how risky is something? if i make this bet, what are the chances of x,y,z happening? they have models for these things. but as i've said before, the outcome of a model is not always based in reality. the outcome could very well be logical, but practical, no. these models were behind the fall of long-term capital and they've been the reason so many people were surprised when their CDOs started falling. people actually think they can quantify risk. it's impossible. risk can be measured given all known inputs, but therein lies the fallacy, you cannot possibly include all unknown inputs. they're unknown! it's not impossible. so risk can be squeezed down to make you sleep better at night, but it's still there because you didn't factor in what would happen when these CDOs failed on top of all the credit default swaps that were lingering with them. i'm going off on this tangent because of this article. read it here. it's great.
so what is a credit default swap? real quick: let's say you want to bet on the yankees to win the world series but you're not sure they're going to win. so you bet five on the yankees and four on the astros. so i've collected nine dollars from you. now the yankees win. you want your five dollars. well i don't have it. because i took that nine dollars and only kept one. i invested the eight dollars in mortgage securities, which i can't sell now to cover the bet because they're worthless. on top of that, i used the mortgage securities to obtain loans using the mortgage securities as collateral. now the banks are calling in their loans because my collateral is worthless. so i owe for the yankees, i owe to the banks and the worst part is i took this bet for every person i know. i'm over-leveraged and have no means to pay back the credit default swap or the loans. that's what happened to AIG, Lehmans and Bear Stearns.
bill gross of pimco has some power. here he is answering questions.
apparently american express is paying people to pay off their balances.
the paths to repudiation.
a daily show clip is always worth mentioning.
robert smith is hating on radiohead. i've got two words for robert smith: less is more. dude, you're fifty. let's cut the pancake and teenage angst and let's start singing about early dinners and the weather channel. please.
so what is a credit default swap? real quick: let's say you want to bet on the yankees to win the world series but you're not sure they're going to win. so you bet five on the yankees and four on the astros. so i've collected nine dollars from you. now the yankees win. you want your five dollars. well i don't have it. because i took that nine dollars and only kept one. i invested the eight dollars in mortgage securities, which i can't sell now to cover the bet because they're worthless. on top of that, i used the mortgage securities to obtain loans using the mortgage securities as collateral. now the banks are calling in their loans because my collateral is worthless. so i owe for the yankees, i owe to the banks and the worst part is i took this bet for every person i know. i'm over-leveraged and have no means to pay back the credit default swap or the loans. that's what happened to AIG, Lehmans and Bear Stearns.
bill gross of pimco has some power. here he is answering questions.
apparently american express is paying people to pay off their balances.
the paths to repudiation.
a daily show clip is always worth mentioning.
robert smith is hating on radiohead. i've got two words for robert smith: less is more. dude, you're fifty. let's cut the pancake and teenage angst and let's start singing about early dinners and the weather channel. please.
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